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Fossil fuel use must fall twice as fast as thought to contain global warming
Climate scientists have bad news for governments, energy companies, motorists, passengers and citizens everywhere in the world: to contain global warming to the limits agreed by 195 nations in Paris last December, they will have to cut fossil fuel combustion at an even faster rate than anybody had predicted. Joeri Rogelj, research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, and European and Canadian colleagues propose in Nature Climate Change that all previous estimates of the quantities of carbon dioxide that can be released into the atmosphere before the thermometer rises to potentially catastrophic levels are too generous. Instead of a range of permissible emissions estimates that ranged up to 2,390 bn tons from 2015 onwards, the very most humans could release would be 1,240 bn tons.
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In effect, that halves the levels of diesel and petrol available for petrol tanks, coal for power stations, and natural gas for central heating and cooking available to humankind before the global average temperature – already 1°C higher than it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution – reaches the notional 2°C mark long agreed internationally as being the point of no return for the planet.
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In fact, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change summit in Paris agreed a target “well below” 2°C, in recognition of ominous projections − one of which was that, at such planetary temperatures, sea levels would rise high enough to submerge several small island states.
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The Nature Climate Change paper is a restatement of a problem that has been clear for decades. Carbon dioxide proportions in the atmosphere are linked to planetary surface temperatures and, as they rise, so does average temperature.
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The global exploitation, on a massive scale, of fossil fuels drove the expansion of agriculture, the growth of economies, a sevenfold growth in human population, a sea level rise of 14 cm, and a temperature rise of, so far, 1°C. To stop temperatures increasing another 3°C or more and sea levels rising by more than a metre, humans have to reduce fossil fuel emissions. By how much these must be reduced is difficult to calculate.
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The global carbon budget is really the balance between what animals emit – in this context, the word animals includes humans with cars and aeroplanes and factories – and what plants and algae can absorb. So the calculations are bedevilled by uncertainties about forests, grasslands and oceans.
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Dr Rogelj says: “In order to have a reasonable chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, we can only emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide, ever. That’s our carbon budget.
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“This has been understood for about a decade, and the physics behind this concept are well understood, but many different factors can lead to carbon budgets that are either slightly smaller or slightly larger. We wanted to understand these differences, and to provide clarity on the issue for policymakers and the public. This study shows that, in some cases, we have been overestimating the budget by 50 to more than 200%. At the high end, this is a difference of more than 1,000 billion tons of carbon dioxide.”
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The same study takes a closer look at why estimates of the “safe” level of emissions have varied so widely. One complicating factor has been, of course, uncertainty about what humans might do, and another has been about the other more transient greenhouse gases, such as methane and the oxides of nitrogen.
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Although short-lived and released in smaller quantities, some of these are potentially far more potent than carbon dioxide as an influence on planetary temperatures. But Dr Rogelj and his colleagues found that a significant cause of variation was simply a consequence of the different assumptions and methodologies inherent in such complex calculations.
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So the researchers have re-examined both the options and the approaches, and have worked out a global figure that, they suggest, could be relevant to “real-world policy”. It takes into account the consequences of all human activity, and it embraces detailed outlines of possible low-carbon choices. It also offers, they say, a 66% chance of staying within the internationally-agreed limit.
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“We now better understand the carbon budget for keeping global warming below 2°C,” Dr Rogelj says. “This carbon budget is very important to know because it defines how much carbon dioxide we are allowed to release into the atmosphere, ever. We have figured out that this budget is at the low end of what studies indicated before, and if we don’t start reducing our emissions immediately, we will blow it in a few decades.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/fossil-fuel-use-must-fall-twice-fast-thought-contain-globalwarming
01 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) Considering the title of the article, one can infer that the current estimative on the use of fossil fuels and its relation to global warming is
(A) equal to what was thought before.
(B) better than what was thought before.
(C) worse than what was thought before.
(D) not as alarming as what was thought before.
(E) twice as optimistic as what was thought before.
(B) better than what was thought before.
(C) worse than what was thought before.
(D) not as alarming as what was thought before.
(E) twice as optimistic as what was thought before.
Comentários e Gabarito C
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
Considering the title of the article, one can infer that the current estimative on the use of fossil fuels and its relation to global warming is
Considerando o título do artigo, pode-se inferir que a estimativa atual sobre o uso de combustíveis fósseis e sua relação com o aquecimento global é
Considerando o título do artigo, pode-se inferir que a estimativa atual sobre o uso de combustíveis fósseis e sua relação com o aquecimento global é
a) equal to what was thought before.
igual ao que foi pensado antes.
b) better than what was thought before.
b) better than what was thought before.
melhor do que se pensava antes.
c) worse than what was thought before.
c) worse than what was thought before.
pior do que se pensava antes.
- [TÍTULO DO TEXTO]
- Fossil fuel use must fall twice as fast as thought to contain global warming
- O uso de combustíveis fósseis deve ser reduzido duas vezes mais rapidamente do que o imaginado para conter o aquecimento global
- "Fossil fuel" – combustíveis fósseis.
- "as fast as" – mais rapidamente do que.
- "global warming" – aquecimento global.
não tão alarmante quanto se pensava antes.
e) twice as optimistic as what was thought before.
e) twice as optimistic as what was thought before.
duas vezes mais otimista do que se pensava antes.
02 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) The author's main purpose in the article is to
(A) complain against governments that cannot calculate their carbon budget accurately.
(B) alert society in general to the urgent necessity of replacement of all nonrenewable fuels.
(C) criticize 195 nations for their catastrophic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
(D) inform governments and society in general about the disastrous implications of global warming to mankind.
(E) report on a scientific study that clarifies the concept of carbon budget and its relevance to global warming control.
(D) inform governments and society in general about the disastrous implications of global warming to mankind.
(E) report on a scientific study that clarifies the concept of carbon budget and its relevance to global warming control.
Comentários e Gabarito E
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
The author's main purpose in the article is to
O principal objetivo do autor no artigo é
(A) complain against governments that cannot calculate their carbon budget accurately.
(A) complain against governments that cannot calculate their carbon budget accurately.
reclamar contra governos que não podem calcular seu orçamento de carbono com precisão.
(B) alert society in general to the urgent necessity of replacement of all nonrenewable fuels.
(B) alert society in general to the urgent necessity of replacement of all nonrenewable fuels.
alertar a sociedade em geral para a necessidade urgente de substituição de todos os combustíveis não renováveis.
(C) criticize 195 nations for their catastrophic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
criticar 195 nações por suas emissões catastróficas de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera.
(D) inform governments and society in general about the disastrous implications of global warming to mankind.
(D) inform governments and society in general about the disastrous implications of global warming to mankind.
informar os governos e a sociedade em geral sobre as implicações desastrosas do aquecimento global para a humanidade.
(E) report on a scientific study that clarifies the concept of carbon budget and its relevance to global warming control.
(E) report on a scientific study that clarifies the concept of carbon budget and its relevance to global warming control.
relatar um estudo científico que esclareça o conceito de orçamento de carbono e sua relevância para o controle do aquecimento global.
03 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) In the excerpt,
- “they will have to cut fossil fuel combustion at an even faster rate than anybody had predicted.” (line 3),
the fragment ‘will have to cut’ indicates
a) obligation
b) uncertainty
c) possibility
d) prohibition
e) permission
Comentários e Gabarito A
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
04 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) In the fragment
- “… the notional 2°C mark long agreed internationally as being the point of no return for the planet.” (line 13),
the expression ‘point of no return’ could be substituted by
a) moment of indecision
b) irreversible moment
c) point of departure
d) inspiring moment
e) point of disagreement
b) irreversible moment
c) point of departure
d) inspiring moment
e) point of disagreement
Comentários e Gabarito B
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
05 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) According to the text, the high use of fossil fuels worldwide has contributed to all the following phenomena EXCEPT the
a) rise in global surface temperatures and sea level.
b) controlled emissions of greenhouse gases.
c) development of world economies.
d) large emission of carbon dioxide.
e) increase of human population.
b) controlled emissions of greenhouse gases.
c) development of world economies.
d) large emission of carbon dioxide.
e) increase of human population.
Comentários e Gabarito B
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
06 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) According to the text, the global carbon budget
a) has been underestimated by climate scientists as well as governments.
b) has not been facing dramatic variations in calculations in the last few years.
c) calls for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the next few decades.
d) defines the amount of carbon dioxide we can release into the atmosphere.
e) informs the exact levels of methane and oxides of nitrogen that can be released into the atmosphere.
b) has not been facing dramatic variations in calculations in the last few years.
c) calls for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the next few decades.
d) defines the amount of carbon dioxide we can release into the atmosphere.
e) informs the exact levels of methane and oxides of nitrogen that can be released into the atmosphere.
Comentários e Gabarito D
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
De acordo com o texto, o orçamento global de carbono...
a) has been underestimated by climate scientists as well as governments.• foi subestimado tanto pelos cientistas do clima quanto pelos governos.
b) has not been facing dramatic variations in calculations in the last few years.
• não tem enfrentado variações dramáticas nos cálculos nos últimos anos.
c) calls for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the next few decades.
• exige a redução das emissões de dióxido de carbono nas próximas décadas.
d) defines the amount of carbon dioxide we can release into the atmosphere.
d) defines the amount of carbon dioxide we can release into the atmosphere.
• define a quantidade de dióxido de carbono que podemos liberar na atmosfera.
e) informs the exact levels of methane and oxides of nitrogen that can be released into the atmosphere.
e) informs the exact levels of methane and oxides of nitrogen that can be released into the atmosphere.
• informa os níveis exatos de metano e óxidos de nitrogênio que podem ser liberados na atmosfera.
a) “Instead of a range of permissible emissions estimates that ranged up to 2,390 bn tons from 2015 onwards,” (lines 7-8) – Because of
b) “In effect, that halves the levels of diesel and petrol available for petrol tanks, coal for power stations, and natural gas…” (lines 10-11) – However
c) “In order to have a reasonable chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, we can only emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide, ever…” (lines 27-28) - Due to
d) “Although short-lived and released in smaller quantities, some of these are potentially far more potent than carbon dioxide…” (lines 37-38) – Besides
e) “So the researchers have re-examined both the options and the approaches, and have worked out a global figure that, they suggest, could be relevant to “real-world policy”. (lines 41-42) – Therefore
a) “one of which” (line 15) refers to “summit in Paris” (line 14).
b) “these” (line 23) refers to “sea levels” (line 22).
c) “this concept” (line 29) refers to “global warming” (line 27).
d) “some of these” (line 37) refers to “greenhouse gases” (line 36).
e) “it” (line 42) refers to “real-world policy” (line 42).
a) Ironic
b) Careless
c) Concerned
d) Enthusiastic
e) Inconsiderate
07 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) Check the option in which the word in boldface expresses the same meaning in the fragment as the word or expression in italics.
a) “Instead of a range of permissible emissions estimates that ranged up to 2,390 bn tons from 2015 onwards,” (lines 7-8) – Because of
b) “In effect, that halves the levels of diesel and petrol available for petrol tanks, coal for power stations, and natural gas…” (lines 10-11) – However
c) “In order to have a reasonable chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, we can only emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide, ever…” (lines 27-28) - Due to
d) “Although short-lived and released in smaller quantities, some of these are potentially far more potent than carbon dioxide…” (lines 37-38) – Besides
e) “So the researchers have re-examined both the options and the approaches, and have worked out a global figure that, they suggest, could be relevant to “real-world policy”. (lines 41-42) – Therefore
Comentários e Gabarito E
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
08 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) Based on the meanings expressed in the text, it is correct to affirm that
a) “permissible” (line 7) and tolerable are antonyms.
b) “ominous” (line 15) and encouraging are synonyms.
c) “massive” (line 20) and substantial do not express similar ideas.
d) “bedevilled” (line 26) means the same as tormented.
e) “reasonable” (line 27) does not mean acceptable.
b) “ominous” (line 15) and encouraging are synonyms.
c) “massive” (line 20) and substantial do not express similar ideas.
d) “bedevilled” (line 26) means the same as tormented.
e) “reasonable” (line 27) does not mean acceptable.
Comentários e Gabarito D
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
09 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) In terms of reference, it is correct to affirm that
a) “one of which” (line 15) refers to “summit in Paris” (line 14).
b) “these” (line 23) refers to “sea levels” (line 22).
c) “this concept” (line 29) refers to “global warming” (line 27).
d) “some of these” (line 37) refers to “greenhouse gases” (line 36).
e) “it” (line 42) refers to “real-world policy” (line 42).
Comentários e Gabarito D
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
10 – (PUC/Rio-2016/2-VESTIBULAR DE INVERNO) Based on the tone of the text, which of the following options best describes the author’s attitude towards fossil fuel use?
a) Ironic
b) Careless
c) Concerned
d) Enthusiastic
e) Inconsiderate
Comentários e Gabarito C
TÓPICOS - VOCABULÁRIO & RELAÇÃO SEMÂNTICA COM TRECHO DO TEXTO :
• Com base no tom do texto, qual das opções a seguir melhor descreve a atitude do autor em relação ao uso de combustível fóssil?
a) Ironic
• Irônica
b) Careless
b) Careless
• Descuidada
c) Concerned
c) Concerned
• Preocupada
d) Enthusiastic
d) Enthusiastic
• Entusiasmada
e) Inconsiderate
e) Inconsiderate
• imprudente
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